Gold price forecast for the next five years (2025–2029)
Gold price forecast for the next five years (2025–2029), We have based estimations on insights typically derived from reputable financial org sources such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, World Gold Council, IMF reports, and leading news websites (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times). Then we have converted these USD forecasts into INR per 10 grams using an exchange rate of 83 INR/USD (an approximation based on recent trends).
Methodology and Sources’ Typical Approach
Banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan): Often forecast gold prices based on US Federal Reserve policies, interest rates, and dollar strength. They’ve historically been bullish when real yields are negative or geopolitical risks rise.
Brokerage Firms (e.g., UBS, Morgan Stanley): Focus on technical analysis, investor sentiment, and central bank gold purchases (e.g., China, India, Russia).
International Funds (e.g., World Gold Council): Emphasize long-term demand (jewelry, investment, industrial) and supply constraints (mining output).
News Websites (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters): Aggregate expert opinions and report on spot trends, often citing analysts from the above institutions.
Given gold’s spot price in early 2025 is likely around $2,700–$2,900 per ounce (a reasonable assumption based on its trajectory in 2024), here’s a forecast grounded in these sources’ typical logic:
Gold Price Forecast (2025–2029) in USD per Ounce
2025: $3,100
Rationale: Banks like Goldman Sachs often predict a 10–15% annual increase when rate cuts are expected. Bloomberg might report on sustained ETF inflows and central bank buying (e.g., 700–800 tonnes annually per World Gold Council). A target of $3,100 reflects moderate bullishness amid easing monetary policy.
2026: $3,400
Rationale: UBS and Morgan Stanley frequently cite a multi-year uptrend when inflation persists above 2–3%. Reuters might note a weaker USD due to fiscal deficits, pushing gold to $3,400 as a safe-haven asset.
2027: $3,700
Rationale: The World Gold Council often highlights long-term demand from India and China (50% of global consumption). JP Morgan could project $3,700 if real yields stay low and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Taiwan, Ukraine) escalate.
2028: $3,850
Rationale: Brokerages like UBS might anticipate a plateau after a rally, with slight corrections. Bloomberg could report supply constraints (e.g., declining mine production), supporting a rise to $3,850.
2029: $4,000
Rationale: Long-term forecasts from banks like Goldman Sachs often assume a “new normal” for gold above $4,000 by the end of a decade-long cycle, driven by inflation hedging and de-dollarization trends (per Financial Times analyses).
Conversion to INR per 10 Grams
Using the same conversion method as before:
1 troy ounce = 31.1035 grams
Price per gram in USD = Price per ounce ÷ 31.1035
Price per gram in INR = Price per gram in USD × 83
Price per 10 grams in INR = Price per gram in INR × 10
Calculations:
2025: $3,100 per ounce
Per gram in USD = 3,100 ÷ 31.1035 ≈ $99.67
Per gram in INR = 99.67 × 83 ≈ 8,273 INR
Per 10 grams = 8,273 × 10 ≈ 82,730 INR
2026: $3,400 per ounce
Per gram in USD = 3,400 ÷ 31.1035 ≈ $109.32
Per gram in INR = 109.32 × 83 ≈ 9,074 INR
Per 10 grams = 9,074 × 10 ≈ 90,740 INR
2027: $3,700 per ounce
Per gram in USD = 3,700 ÷ 31.1035 ≈ $118.97
Per gram in INR = 118.97 × 83 ≈ 9,875 INR
Per 10 grams = 9,875 × 10 ≈ 98,750 INR
2028: $3,850 per ounce
Per gram in USD = 3,850 ÷ 31.1035 ≈ $123.80
Per gram in INR = 123.80 × 83 ≈ 10,275 INR
Per 10 grams = 10,275 × 10 ≈ 102,750 INR
2029: $4,000 per ounce
Per gram in USD = 4,000 ÷ 31.1035 ≈ $128.61
Per gram in INR = 128.61 × 83 ≈ 10,675 INR
Per 10 grams = 10,675 × 10 ≈ 106,750 INR
Summary of Gold Price Forecast in INR (per 10 grams)
2025: ~82,730 INR
2026: ~90,740 INR
2027: ~98,750 INR
2028: ~102,750 INR
2029: ~106,750 INR
Alignment with Sources
Conservative Growth: This forecast (4–8% annual growth) is more conservative than many other sources, reflecting banks’ cautious optimism (e.g., Goldman Sachs’ $3,000+ targets in 2024 reports) extended logically into 2025–2029.
Key Drivers: Matches World Gold Council’s emphasis on Asian demand, Reuters’ focus on dollar weakness, and UBS’s technical resistance levels.
INR Context: Assumes a stable USD/INR rate of 83; banks like Morgan Stanley often warn of rupee depreciation (e.g., to 85–90 INR/USD), which could push INR prices higher.
Caveats
Exchange Rate Volatility: If the rupee weakens significantly, INR prices could rise 5–10% more than forecasted.
India-Specific Premiums: Import duties (10–15%) and GST (3%) typically add 13–18% to these base prices in India, so actual retail prices might be 95,000 INR in 2025 or 123,000 INR in 2029.
Unpredictable Events: Black swan events (e.g., a global recession or sudden peace resolution) could derail these trends, as noted by Bloomberg analysts.
